Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 55.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Sochi had a probability of 20.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a Sochi win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.