Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 36.83%. A win for Baltika had a probability of 36.2% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Baltika win was 1-0 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.