Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 59.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 16.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.63%) and 1-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Fakel win it was 1-0 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.