RB Leipzig host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Wednesday, with the visitors guaranteed to move into the top four of the table at the halfway stage of the season if they can beat Julian Nagelsmann's side.
Leipzig, meanwhile, must win themselves in order to avoid losing any more ground on league leaders Bayern Munich.
Match preview
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After losing 3-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund in a humbling defeat, Leipzig travelled to Wolfsburg on Saturday knowing that they were likely to require bouncing back with a victory in order to keep the pressure on Bayern.
However, the Wolves are yet to be defeated at home in the league this season, so winning was always going to be a tall order. Nordi Mukiele smashed Leipzig into the lead in the opening minutes, but Renato Steffen and Wout Weghorst responded to give Oliver Glasner's side the lead at the break.
At that point Nagelsmann would surely have taken a draw, which Willi Orban's goal duly delivered for his side as the game finished 2-2. However, given that Wolfsburg's only two shots on target across the 90 minutes were their two goals, there would have been a tinge of disappointment that Leipzig could not find the breakthrough despite dominating the second half.
Defeating a Union Berlin side who have not lost any of their last six matches, with tough fixtures against Bayern, Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen included in those, is unlikely to prove any easier on Wednesday.
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Indeed, in a world before social distancing, you would have had to pinch Urs Fischer in order for him to believe his side would have a chance of occupying a Champions League qualification position at the halfway stage of only their second ever Bundesliga season.
Having taken 12 points from their last six unbeaten games, though, that is exactly the position Union Berlin find themselves in after Friday night's narrow 1-0 victory over Leverkusen.
As expected, the visitors dominated possession, but Union Berlin were typically tough to break down while still offering plenty of threat in transition with the pace of Sheraldo Becker and Liverpool loanee Taiwo Awoniyi.
However, it was Cedric Teuchert who won the game for his side with his third league goal from the bench this season, showcasing Fischer's surprising strength in depth at his disposal. With Max Kruse hopefully set to return from injury in the coming weeks, the sky is potentially the limit for his side.
RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: WWDWLD
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): WDWWLD
Union Berlin Bundesliga form: DDWWDW
Union Berlin form (all competitions): DWLWDW
Team News
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Leipzig appear to be through the worst of their injury problems, but new signing Dominik Szoboszlai will have to wait to make his debut until next month due to a groin injury.
Ibrahima Konate, Benjamin Henrichs and Konrad Laimer are all ruled out for the visit of Union Berlin.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, will be without top goalscorer Kruse until early February while their talisman recovers from a muscle injury.
Christian Gentner is a doubt for the trip to Leipzig, with Anthony Ujah and Joel Pohjanpalo definitely ruled out.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Orban, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Mukiele, Kampl, Sabitzer, Angelino; Olmo, Forsberg; Poulsen
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Hubner; Trimmel, Lenz, Prommel, Andrich, Ingvartsen; Becker, Awoniyi
We say: RB Leipzig 1-1 Union Berlin
Union Berlin are the type of side which Leipzig regularly find difficult to overcome, with Fischer's side likely to sit deep and hit their opponents on the break.
It would not be a surprise to the visitors pick up a creditable draw, then, with Becker and Awoniyi likely to pose Leipzig's centre-backs real issues.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 61.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 17.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 1-0 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
