Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Ahli win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 36.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Ahli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.61%) and 2-0 (5.48%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.