Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar SC win with a probability of 40.83%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar SC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.93%) and 2-0 (5.7%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.