Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Arabi win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Arabi win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.