Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Umm Salal win with a probability of 45.87%. A win for Al Shahaniya had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Umm Salal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.23%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Al Shahaniya win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Umm Salal would win this match.