Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Umm Salal win with a probability of 44.47%. A win for Al Ahli had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Umm Salal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.98%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Al Ahli win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.