Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Wakrah win with a probability of 53.22%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 25.17% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Wakrah win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.18%) and 1-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Wakrah would win this match.