Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 64.55%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 14.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.25%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.