Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 66.35%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 13.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.17%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.56%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Penafiel
66.35% ( -0.17)	20.12% ( 0.11)	13.53% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 47.25% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.35% (

-0.3)

46.65% (

0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.09% (

-0.28)

68.91% (

0.29)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.83% (

-0.14)

13.17% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.13% (

-0.29)

39.87% (

0.29)

Penafiel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.41% (

-0.08)

45.59% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.6% (

-0.07)

81.4% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 66.34%

Penafiel 13.53%

Draw 20.12%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Penafiel
2-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.55% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.79% Total : 66.34%	1-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.75% Total : 20.12%	0-1 @ 4.72% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.22% Total : 13.53%