Penafiel
Taca de Portugal | Third Round
Oct 22, 2023 at 3pm UK
Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Penafiel
3 - 0
Santa Maria

Robinho (23' pen., 48'), Barbosa (54')
Barbosa (25'), Pinheiro (27'), Robinho (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Barbosa (44')
Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Third Round clash between Penafiel and Santa Maria.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penafiel

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Penafiel (0-0 pen.)
Saturday, July 22 at 3.30pm in Taca da Liga
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Santa Maria

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penafiel win with a probability of 82.73%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Santa Maria had a probability of 5.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penafiel win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.79%) and 1-0 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.72%), while for a Santa Maria win it was 0-1 (2.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penafiel would win this match.

Result
PenafielDrawSanta Maria
82.73% (-0.182 -0.18)12.09% (0.059000000000001 0.06)5.19% (0.124 0.12)
Both teams to score 39.17% (0.651 0.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63% (0.341 0.34)37% (-0.34 -0.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.81% (0.368 0.37)59.18% (-0.367 -0.37)
Penafiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.3% (0.032000000000011 0.03)6.7% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
75.2% (0.087000000000003 0.09)24.8% (-0.087000000000003 -0.09)
Santa Maria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
41.98% (0.685 0.69)58.02% (-0.685 -0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.39% (0.368 0.37)89.61% (-0.36799999999999 -0.37)
Score Analysis
    Penafiel 82.71%
    Santa Maria 5.19%
    Draw 12.09%
PenafielDrawSanta Maria
2-0 @ 14.19% (-0.19 -0.19)
3-0 @ 12.79% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-0 @ 10.5% (-0.16 -0.16)
4-0 @ 8.65% (-0.081 -0.08)
2-1 @ 7.73% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
3-1 @ 6.97% (0.073 0.07)
4-1 @ 4.71% (0.058 0.06)
5-0 @ 4.68% (-0.036 -0.04)
5-1 @ 2.55% (0.036 0.04)
6-0 @ 2.11% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.9% (0.06 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.28% (0.043 0.04)
6-1 @ 1.15% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 82.71%
1-1 @ 5.72% (0.04 0.04)
0-0 @ 3.89% (-0.065 -0.07)
2-2 @ 2.1% (0.063 0.06)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 12.09%
0-1 @ 2.12% (0.011 0.01)
1-2 @ 1.56% (0.044 0.04)
Other @ 1.52%
Total : 5.19%

Form Guide
Sorry, no data available for Penafiel