Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.59%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 21.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.08%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.