Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Moreirense |
| 40.24% | 27.99% | 31.76% |
| Both teams to score 47.18% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.28% | 58.72% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.74% | 79.25% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.44% | 28.56% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.65% | 64.35% |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.04% | 33.95% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.37% | 70.63% |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 12.15% 2-1 @ 8.23% 2-0 @ 7.61% 3-1 @ 3.44% 3-0 @ 3.18% 3-2 @ 1.86% 4-1 @ 1.08% 4-0 @ 1% Other @ 1.71% Total : 40.24% | 1-1 @ 13.12% 0-0 @ 9.7% 2-2 @ 4.44% Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.99% | 0-1 @ 10.47% 1-2 @ 7.09% 0-2 @ 5.66% 1-3 @ 2.55% 0-3 @ 2.04% 2-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 2.35% Total : 31.76% |