Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 49.83%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 24.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (7.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.