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Callum Wilson
45'+5'
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Callum Wilson
56'
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Joelinton
59'
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Miguel Almiron
67'
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
Reaction
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The match
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Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result
Both Teams to Score:
Goals
Newcastle United Goals
Aston Villa Goals
Score analysis
2-1 @ 9.28% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 8.69% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.7% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4.4% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.51% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 1.79% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 1.67% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 47.71%
0-0 @ 7.52% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.95% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 25.66%
1-2 @ 6.51% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 4.28% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.32% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.76% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.52% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 26.63%
Head to Head
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Kieran Trippier
35'
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Joelinton
39'
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Dan Burn
66'
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Jonjo Shelvey
82'
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John McGinn
42'
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Douglas Luiz
89'
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Leon Bailey
90'+5'
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Jacob Ramsey
90'+7'
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Douglas Luiz
45'+1'
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Danny Ings
45'+3'
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Anwar El Ghazi
62'
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Emiliano Martinez
75'
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Emiliano Buendia
85'
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Callum Wilson
41'
-
Isaac Hayden
45'
-
Jacob Murphy
57'
-
Fabian Schar
84'
-
Emil Krafth
52'
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Jamaal Lascelles
68'
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Jamaal Lascelles
90'+4'
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John McGinn
74'
-
Morgan Sanson
77'
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Tyrone Mings
78'
-
Ollie Watkins
86'
-
Ollie Watkins
13'
-
Bertrand Traore
42'
-
Fabian Schar
26'
-
Andy Carroll
54'
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Jamaal Lascelles
57'
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Jamaal Lascelles
59'
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Dwight Gayle
68'
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Federico Fernandez
74'
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Douglas Luiz
45'+1'
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Ahmed Elmohamady
83'
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Kortney Hause
90'
-
Conor Hourihane
32'
-
Anwar El Ghazi
36'
-
Wesley
80'
-
Federico Fernandez
35'
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