Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 66.79%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 15.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.21%) and 1-0 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-2 (4.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
66.79% ( 0) | 18.08% | 15.14% |
Both teams to score 58.87% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.42% ( 0) | 33.58% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.62% ( 0) | 55.38% |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.68% ( 0) | 9.32% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.57% ( 0) | 31.43% |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.92% | 35.08% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.17% | 71.83% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
2-1 @ 9.64% 2-0 @ 9.21% 1-0 @ 7.76% 3-1 @ 7.63% 3-0 @ 7.28% 4-1 @ 4.53% 4-0 @ 4.32% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4% 4-2 @ 2.37% 5-1 @ 2.15% 5-0 @ 2.05% 5-2 @ 1.13% Other @ 4.73% Total : 66.79% | 1-1 @ 8.13% 2-2 @ 5.05% 0-0 @ 3.27% 3-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 0.24% Total : 18.08% | 1-2 @ 4.26% 0-1 @ 3.42% 0-2 @ 1.79% 2-3 @ 1.76% 1-3 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.41% Total : 15.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 26 | 56 | 77 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 33 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 80 | 32 | 48 | 76 |
3 | Liverpool | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 75 | 34 | 41 | 74 |
4 | Aston Villa | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 65 | 49 | 16 | 60 |
6 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 53 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 69 | 54 | 15 | 50 |
8 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 63 | -9 | 48 |
9 | Chelsea | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 61 | 57 | 4 | 47 |
10 | Bournemouth | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 45 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 44 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 43 |
13 | Fulham | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 42 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 39 |
15 | Brentford | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 35 |
16 | Everton | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 26 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 75 | -28 | 25 |
19 | Burnley | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 23 |
20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 34 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 33 | 92 | -59 | 16 |
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