Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-0 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.