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EFL Cup

Newcastle logo
EFL Cup | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Jan 31, 2023 at 8pm UK
St. James' Park
Southampton logo

Newcastle
2 - 1
Southampton

Longstaff (5', 21')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Adams (29')

The Match

Match Report

Newcastle United are into the EFL Cup final after beating Southampton 3-1 on aggregate.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Newcastle United and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle United

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Newcastle
Tuesday, January 24 at 8pm in EFL Cup

Southampton

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Southampton 2-1 Blackpool
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 58.1%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 19.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Southampton win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle UnitedDrawSouthampton
58.1% (-0.012 -0.01)22.52% (0.0019999999999989 0)19.38% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 52.2% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.43% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)46.57% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.16% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)68.84% (0.0080000000000098 0.01)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.27% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)15.73% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.17% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)44.82% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)38.05% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.18% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)74.82% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Newcastle United 58.09%
    Southampton 19.38%
    Draw 22.52%
Newcastle UnitedDrawSouthampton
1-0 @ 11.07% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 10.23%
2-1 @ 9.89% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 6.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 6.1% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.95%
4-0 @ 2.92% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 2.82% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.36% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.08%
5-1 @ 1.04% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 58.09%
1-1 @ 10.69%
0-0 @ 5.99% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 4.78% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 0.95%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.52%
0-1 @ 5.78% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 5.17% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 2.79% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 1.67% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.54% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 19.38%

How you voted: Newcastle vs Southampton

Newcastle United
79.3%
Draw
7.9%
Southampton
12.8%
203
Head to Head
Jan 24, 2023 8pm
Semi-Finals
Southampton
0-1
Newcastle

Caleta-Car (28'), Alcaraz (37'), Walker-Peters (44'), Lyanco (84'), Salisu (90+5')
Caleta-Car (86')
Joelinton (73')
Trippier (70'), Saint-Maximin (84'), Guimaraes (86')
Nov 6, 2022 2pm
Southampton
1-4
Newcastle
Perraud (89')
Lavia (75')
Almiron (35'), Wood (58'), Willock (62'), Guimaraes (90+1')
Mar 10, 2022 7.30pm
Southampton
1-2
Newcastle
Armstrong (25')
Bednarek (72')
Wood (32'), Guimaraes (52')
Murphy (16')
Aug 28, 2021 3pm
Newcastle
2-2
Southampton
Wilson (55'), Saint-Maximin (90')
Schar (40'), Lascelles (90+5')
Elyounoussi (74'), Ward-Prowse (90+6' pen.)
Walker-Peters (30'), Djenepo (56'), Ward-Prowse (79')
Feb 6, 2021 3pm
Newcastle
3-2
Southampton
Willock (16'), Almiron (26', 45+4')
Hendrick (11'), Krafth (45+3')
Hendrick (50')
Minamino (30'), Ward-Prowse (48')
Bednarek (73')