Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 25

Feb 18, 2024 at 4.30pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
1 - 2
Man Utd

Morris (14')
Woodrow (17'), Townsend (70'), Osho (87')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Hojlund (1', 7')
Shaw (20'), Casemiro (34'), Maguire (42'), Mainoo (75'), Lindelof (81')

Reaction

Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag reacts on February 18, 2024

Erik ten Hag admits Manchester United are still "fragile"

Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag admits that his team are still "fragile" despite claiming a narrow 2-1 victory over Luton Town at Kenilworth Road.

Feb 19, 00:30

Manchester United's Luke Shaw walks off the pitch to be substituted due to injury on February 18, 2024

Manchester United suffer fresh Luke Shaw injury setback

Manchester United left-back Luke Shaw suffers an injury setback in Sunday's 2-1 win against Luton Town at Kenilworth Road.

Feb 18, 20:25

Manchester United's Rasmus Hojlund in action with Luton Town's Gabriel Osho on February 18, 2024

Rasmus Hojlund breaks Premier League record with opener against Luton Town

Manchester United forward Rasmus Hojlund breaks a Premier League record with his early opener in Sunday's 2-1 win over Luton Town.

Feb 18, 19:57

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Luton 1-3 Sheff Utd
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Manchester United

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Aston Villa 1-2 Man Utd
Sunday, February 11 at 4.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 27.73% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.84%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 2-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Manchester United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Manchester United.

Result
Luton Town	Draw	Manchester United
27.73% ( -1.55)	22.01% ( -0.09)	50.26% ( 1.64)

Both teams to score 64.63% (

-0.9)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.02% (

-0.67)

34.98% (

0.67)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.04% (

-0.75)

56.96% (

0.75)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.4% (

-1.32)

24.6% (

1.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.9% (

-1.89)

59.1% (

1.89)

Manchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.72% (

0.31)

14.28% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.93% (

0.59)

42.07% (

-0.58)

Score Analysis

Luton Town 27.73%

Manchester United 50.26%

Draw 22.01%

Luton Town	Draw	Manchester United
2-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.22) 1-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.23) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.64% Total : 27.73%	1-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.54% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.01%	1-2 @ 9.33% ( 0.16) 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.36) 1-3 @ 6.05% ( 0.17) 0-3 @ 4.32% ( 0.28) 2-3 @ 4.25% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 2.95% ( 0.11) 0-4 @ 2.1% ( 0.16) 2-4 @ 2.07% 1-5 @ 1.15% ( 0.06) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.6% Total : 50.26%