Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 0-1 (9.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.