Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 44.64%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 30.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Everton would win this match.