Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 37.98%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Everton would win this match.