Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Everton had a probability of 36.49% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-0 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Aston Villa in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Aston Villa.