FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 10, 2022 at 7.55pm UK

Old Trafford

Man Utd
1 - 0
Aston Villa

McTominay (8')
Fred (65'), Shaw (68'), Dalot (70')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ramsey (12')

Reaction

Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard before the match on January 10, 2022

Steven Gerrard refuses to blame VAR for Aston Villa's FA Cup exit to Man United

Steven Gerrard says that he does not blame the use of VAR for Aston Villa's exit to Manchester United in the FA Cup third round.

Jan 10, 23:13

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 52.26%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.

Result
Manchester United	Draw	Aston Villa
52.26%	22.51%	25.23%

Both teams to score 60.33%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.41%

39.59%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.06%

61.94%

Manchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.74%

15.26%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.05%

43.95%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.19%

28.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.34%

64.66%

Score Analysis

Manchester United 52.26%

Aston Villa 25.23%

Draw 22.51%

Manchester United	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 9.67% 1-0 @ 8.27% 2-0 @ 7.77% 3-1 @ 6.06% 3-0 @ 4.87% 3-2 @ 3.77% 4-1 @ 2.85% 4-0 @ 2.29% 4-2 @ 1.77% 5-1 @ 1.07% Other @ 3.88% Total : 52.26%	1-1 @ 10.28% 2-2 @ 6.02% 0-0 @ 4.4% 3-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.51%	1-2 @ 6.4% 0-1 @ 5.47% 0-2 @ 3.4% 1-3 @ 2.66% 2-3 @ 2.5% 0-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 3.39% Total : 25.23%