Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County Under-21s win with a probability of 40.32%. A win for Stoke City Under-21s had a probability of 37.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.63%) and 0-2 (4.95%). The likeliest Stoke City Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.