Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 47.15%. A win for Stoke City Under-21s had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.84%) and 3-2 (5%). The likeliest Stoke City Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United Under-21s would win this match.