Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.16%) and 0-2 (5.26%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.