Premier League 2 - Div 1
Aug 23, 2024 at 7pm UK
Pride Park Stadium

Derby U21s
2 - 3
Man City U21s

Ilesanmi (3'), Wheeldon (38')
Gill (45+3')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Wright (45' pen.), Hendersson-Hall (80'), Warhurst (86')
Simpson-Pussey (50'), Samuel (85')
Samuel (90')
Coverage of the Premier League 2 - Div 1 clash between Derby County Under-21s and Manchester City Under-21s.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County Under-21s

All competitions
Last Game: Aston Villa U21s 3-1 Derby U21s
Friday, August 16 at 6pm in Premier League 2 - Div 1

Manchester City Under-21s

All competitions
Premier League 2
Last Game: Chesterfield 1-1 Man City U21s (4-2 pen.)
Tuesday, August 20 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 59.62%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 21.28% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.22%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Derby County Under-21sDrawManchester City Under-21s
21.28% (0.704 0.7)19.1% (0.272 0.27)59.62% (-0.973 -0.97)
Both teams to score 67.9% (0.10599999999999 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
72.42% (-0.327 -0.33)27.58% (0.328 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.79% (-0.41200000000001 -0.41)48.22% (0.413 0.41)
Derby County Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.84% (0.37599999999999 0.38)25.16% (-0.375 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.12% (0.516 0.52)59.88% (-0.514 -0.51)
Manchester City Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.73% (-0.315 -0.31)9.27% (0.316 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.68% (-0.758 -0.76)31.32% (0.758 0.76)
Score Analysis
    Derby County Under-21s 21.28%
    Manchester City Under-21s 59.62%
    Draw 19.1%
Derby County Under-21sDrawManchester City Under-21s
2-1 @ 5.28% (0.141 0.14)
1-0 @ 3.22% (0.098 0.1)
3-2 @ 2.89% (0.067 0.07)
3-1 @ 2.43% (0.091 0.09)
2-0 @ 2.22% (0.09 0.09)
3-0 @ 1.02% (0.053 0.05)
4-2 @ 1% (0.034 0.03)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 21.28%
1-1 @ 7.66% (0.124 0.12)
2-2 @ 6.28% (0.079 0.08)
0-0 @ 2.33% (0.046 0.05)
3-3 @ 2.29% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 19.1%
1-2 @ 9.1% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 7.22% (-0.093 -0.09)
0-2 @ 6.6% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-1 @ 5.55% (0.03 0.03)
0-3 @ 5.23% (-0.125 -0.13)
2-3 @ 4.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-4 @ 4.29% (-0.119 -0.12)
0-4 @ 3.11% (-0.121 -0.12)
2-4 @ 2.96% (-0.049 -0.05)
1-5 @ 2.04% (-0.088 -0.09)
0-5 @ 1.48% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-5 @ 1.41% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-4 @ 1.36% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 4.3%
Total : 59.62%

Head to Head
Oct 28, 2023 12pm
Derby U21s
4-2
Man City U21s
Brown (14', 39'), Davidson (70'), Weston (90')
Cox (62')
Oboavwoduo (21'), Lawrence (50')
Samuel (58'), Okeke (75')