Preview: Palmeiras vs Athletico Paranaense - prediction, team news, lineups

Match preview

After two games without a win, Palmeiras returned to winning ways on Thursday. The 2-1 victory over Sporting Cristal put the Verdao at the top of their Libertadores group and was their first of this edition of the tournament. The Sao Paulo side endured a difficult evening and were level until the 80th minute, when Flaco Lopez secured the result from the penalty spot.

The home factor has been making the difference for Abel Ferreira's side this season, with their last home match without a win coming on February 15. Since then, they have posted eight consecutive home victories — at either the Allianz Parque or the Arena Barueri — across all competitions.

With eyes on a Brazilian title they have not lifted since 2023, their start to the national campaign has excited the Palmeiras faithful. They currently lead the standings on 26 points from eight wins, two draws and one defeat.

In the previous round, the Derby Paulista saw plenty of effort from both teams — and two red cards for Corinthians — but the match ended 0-0. Saves from Hugo Souza, and a clear chance missed by Yuri Alberto, secured a point for each side and underlined Palmeiras' limited superiority even with the extra men.

For the visit of Athletico, it will be Joao Martins in the technical area. The assistant coach is leading the side in domestic competitions while Abel Ferreira serves a four-match ban imposed by the STJD. The Portuguese assistant has been in charge for 28 matches with the head coach suspended, posting a 54% win rate (14 victories).

© Imago / IMAGO / Fotoarena

Athletico-PR have been putting together an impressive campaign as hosts on their return to the top flight, with a win rate of more than 80% at home in the competition. The warning sign, however, comes on the road: the Parana club have suffered three consecutive defeats in their five away outings.

Despite that contrast, Odair Hellmann's side sit inside the top positions. The 2-0 victory over Chapecoense on Sunday, April 12 moved the Parana outfit on to 19 points, currently sixth. Kevin Viveros and Stiven Mendoza were on the scoresheet for the Furacao.

The duo are, in fact, the principal attacking weapon in the first half of the campaign: of the 17 goals scored in total, 10 have come from the pair (six from Viveros and four from Mendoza). Given considerable freedom, both forwards have earned the trust of the coaching staff and have become key figures in the club's impressive return to Serie A.

Odair Hellmann is now trying to bring an end to his side's poor away run this season. Counting the Brazilian Championship and the state competition, his team have played five matches away from the Arena da Baixada without a victory — two draws and three defeats. Of the 13 league goals they have conceded, nine have come in away fixtures.

In the history of the Brazilian Championship, Palmeiras and Athletico-PR have met on 53 occasions, with a clear advantage for the Paulista club. There have been 25 wins for Palmeiras against 12 for Athletico in the competition, along with 16 draws.

Palmeiras Brasileiro form:

W W W W W D

Palmeiras form (all competitions):

W W W D D W

Athletico Paranaense Brasileiro form:

W W W L L W

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):

W W W L L W

Team News

© Imago / Brazil Photo Press

The coaching staff will be forced to change the starting XI on Sunday, with midfielder Marlon Freitas suspended after picking up his third booking. His natural replacement is Lucas Evangelista, who is likely to partner Andreas Pereira in central midfield.

Palmeiras remain without left-backs Piquerez and Jefte, both of whom are injured and working their way back through the medical department. Khellven has been Abel Ferreira's surprise pick in recent matches and is likely to continue in an unfamiliar role on the left. In addition to the two injured players, Paulinho is in physical transition and has gradually returned to on-field work.

There is hope that Vitor Roque will be included in the squad, with the forward having progressed in his recovery from a calf problem. The coaching staff is not expected to rest any regulars and is banking on the finishing of Flaco Lopez, who scored for Palmeiras again after a seven-match drought.

Athletico-PR have a near full-strength squad for the trip to Sao Paulo. Carlos Teran and Benavidez, who missed the match against Chapecoense, have returned to training after physical issues.

The expectation is that the coaching staff will include both defenders in the squad for the fixture. The only absentee, though, is likely to be full-back Gilberto. On loan from Palmeiras, the Parana club's board is not expected to pay the clause that would allow him to feature, meaning the defender will miss the encounter.

Palmeiras possible starting lineup:

Carlos Miguel; Agustin Giay, Gustavo Gomez, Murilo, Khellven; Lucas Evangelista, Andreas Pereira; Jhon Arias, Mauricio, Allan; Flaco Lopez. Manager: Joao Martins (assistant).

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:

Santos; Arthur Dias, Juan Aguirre, Lucas Esquivel; Gaston Benavidez, Jadson, Luiz Gustavo, Leo Derik; Mendoza. Dudu; Viveros. Manager: Odair Hellmann.

We say: Palmeiras 2-1 Athletico Paranaense

Unbeaten at home, Palmeiras will look to use the Allianz Parque atmosphere to secure another three points, although it is worth noting that four of their five home wins in the Brasileirão have seen both teams find the net.

Athletico-PR, meanwhile, possess a quick and dangerous attacking setup that could exploit the spaces left by a forward-thinking Palmeiras side. With four of their last five matches producing over 2.5 goals, the visitors should create opportunities, but the hosts are still favoured to edge a 2-1 victory.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.