Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrick Rangers win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Glenavon had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrick Rangers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Glenavon win was 1-0 (8.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.