A pair of clubs battling for second place in Ligue 1 at the moment will face each other in the quarter-finals of the Coupe de France on Wednesday as Nice host Marseille at Allianz Riviera in Southern France.
Les Aiglons, who dropped to third domestically this past weekend, knocked out the defending cup champions Paris Saint-Germain on penalties in the round of 16, while the 10-time winners of this competition squeaked by Montpellier HSC in a shootout.
Match preview
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Just like he did last season with Lille, Christophe Galtier masterminded a big upset for his new side Nice at the end of January as his players executed his game plan to near perfection, holding the Parisians to only two shots on target, despite only having 31% possession in their knockout stage match at the Parc des Princes.
Having received a free pass to the round of 16 thanks to the disqualification of Lyon and Paris FC because of crowd trouble, many might have questioned how this team would fare moving forward because they were given a bye.
The club located on the Mediterranean appeared to put to bed any doubts about whether they deserved their place in this competition in their previous encounter, as they kept Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi in check, holding the league leaders off the scoresheet for a second time this season.
You have to go back more than 20 years to remember the last time that Nice captured a trophy of any kind, in 1996-97 when they kept their composure in an intense penalty shootout, defeating Guingamp at the Stade de France, winning this tournament for the third time.
Galtier's side are content with hanging back and playing in a low-block system, defending deep and catching you in transition as they do not allow teams many clear-cut opportunities, conceding the joint-fewest goals domestically this season along with PSG (19), and they have yet to allow a goal at this tournament.
It seems as though they are a unified team, who play well collectively, with plenty of resolve, and it is that kind of spirit that has them one game away from making it to the Semi-Finals for the first time since 2010-11.
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After a pair of straightforward victories versus Cannet Rocheville (4-1) and Chauvigny (3-0), Les Olympiens were pushed to the limit in their Round of 16 tie with Montpellier, thanks in large part to the heroics of goalkeeper Dimitry Bertaud, who made numerous quality stops before Marseille solved him in the shootout.
Jorge Sampaoli has been able to keep opposing coaches on their toes with many formations and tactics on a game-by-game basis, and his players may have put together their best performance of the season last week, beating Angers 5-2 to move a point above Nice and into second in the league, scoring five goals in a domestic encounter for the first time since May 2019.
Nice may be a difficult side to break down, but the 10-time league champions can be just as frustrating to play against, because they are capable of holding their positions so well, while also covering the open spaces effectively, and conceding the second-fewest goals in Ligue 1 this season (20).
This possession-based team rarely appear to be in a hurry to counter or move up the field quickly in transition, focusing instead on moving the ball around the pitch, building up play with several passes and waiting for an opening to attack.
Even though they have had their share of success at this competition, there have been plenty of Coupe de France disappointments for them of late, as the last time they made it into the last eight was in 2017-18, while they have not clutched any silverware since winning the Coupe de la Ligue in 2011-12.
Marseille do not look overwhelmed or out of sorts defensively when playing away from home, in fact quite the contrary, as they have collected eight clean sheets combined on the road in the Coupe de France, Ligue 1 and Europa League this season.
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Team News
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Goalkeeper Marcin Bulka, who is currently on loan from PSG, was the hero for Le Gym in the Round of 16, stopping Leandro Paredes and Xavi Simons from the penalty spot to the relief of Andy Delort, who missed his kick from 12 yards away.
Pablo Rosario has not featured in the last two matches for Nice due to a strain in his thigh and gluteal muscles, Calvin Stengs continues to have issues with his ankle and Youcef Atal was replaced by Jordan Lotomba on defence in their 1-0 defeat to Clermont this past weekend.
Amine Gouiri, who leads the team in goals and assists domestically with 10 and seven respectively, notched the opener in their 1-1 draw with Marseille back in October, thanks to an excellent play from Evann Guessand, while Khephren Thuram scored two of his three goals this season last month and Kasper Dolberg has found the back of the net six times in this campaign.
Marseille striker Arkadiusz Milik became the third player in Ligue 1 to pick up a hat-trick this season, helping his team erase a 2-0 deficit to defeat Angers last Friday, while Dimitri Payet put home the winning penalty in their previous Coupe de France encounter versus Montpellier and Pau Lopez replaced Steve Mandanda in goal in that game, saving a penalty from Mihailo Ristic.
Pape Gueye and Bamba Dieng both came on as substitutes for Senegal in their Africa Cup of Nations triumph over Egypt last Sunday, with the latter scoring on the third kick for his country before Edouard Mendy saved Mohanad Lasheen, leading to the winner from Sadio Mane.
Cengiz Under is second on the team in goals domestically with seven, and he has one in this competition in their round of 32 clash, and he, along with Gerson, also found the back of the net on Friday against Les Scoistes.
Nice possible starting lineup:
Bulka; Amavi, Dante, Daniliuc, Bard; Kluivert, Thuram, Schneiderlin, Lemina; Gouiri, Dolberg
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Lirola, Saliba, Gonzalez, Balerdi; Kamara, Guendouzi; Under, Rongier, Payet; Milik
We say: Nice 1-1 Marseille (Nice wins on penalties)
There is no question that Marseille have plenty of individual quality, but Les Aiglons have done a fantastic job at stifling some of the top strikers in France this season, and we expect them to be stubborn and sharp at the back, which could frustrate Les Olympiens.
These teams have similar qualities defensively, so we do not expect there to be a ton of chances either way, but Nice have shown to be a little more composed and consistent of late in spite of their defeat to Clermont last week.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 38.73%. A win for Nice had a probability of 35.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (6.23%). The likeliest Nice win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
