UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs B/C | 2nd Leg

Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Aviva Stadium

Rep. Ireland
2 - 1
Bulgaria

(Republic of Ireland win 4-2 on aggregate)

Ferguson (63'), Idah (84')
Johnston (40'), Knight (44'), Collins (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Antov (30')
Petrov (32'), Gruev (84'), Nikolov (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League playoff between Republic of Ireland and Bulgaria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Republic of Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: Bulgaria 1-2 Rep. Ireland
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	0	0	0
2	Republic of Ireland	0	0	0
3	Greece	0	0	0
4	Finland	0	0	0

Bulgaria

All competitions

Last Game: Bulgaria 1-2 Rep. Ireland
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Bulgaria	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Belarus	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 40.7%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 30.65% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Republic of Ireland in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Republic of Ireland.

Result
Republic of Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
40.7% ( -2.13)	28.65% ( 0.31)	30.65% ( 1.82)

Both teams to score 45% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.73% (

-0.46)

61.27% (

0.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.8% (

-0.34)

81.19% (

0.34)

Republic of Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.46% (

-1.41)

29.54% (

1.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.43% (

-1.75)

65.56% (

1.75)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.87% (

1.16)

36.13% (

-1.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.09% (

1.17)

72.91% (

-1.17)

Score Analysis

Republic of Ireland 40.69%

Bulgaria 30.65%

Draw 28.65%

Republic of Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 13.01% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.5) 3-1 @ 3.28% ( -0.23) 3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.34) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.15) Other @ 1.5% Total : 40.69%	1-1 @ 13.25% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.65%	0-1 @ 10.86% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 5.53% ( 0.43) 1-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.2) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.95% Total : 30.65%