Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 50.45%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 21.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for an Armenia win it was 0-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Republic of Ireland would win this match.