Nations League Gameweek 5
Nov 14, 2026 5.00pm
Ullevaal Stadion

Norway vs Wales - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Norway

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Norway 3 - 2 Denmark

Wales

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Norway win with a probability of 60.81%. A draw has a probability of 20.98% and a win for Wales has a probability of 18.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norway win is 2-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.09%) , while for a Wales win it is 1-2 (4.71%).

Result

Norway 60.81% ▼ (-0.05)
Draw 20.98%
Wales 18.2% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.89% ▲ (+0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.89% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 1.5 20.11% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 2.5 58.43% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 41.57% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 3.5 37.02% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 3.5 62.98% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 4.5 24.95% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 4.5 75.05% ▼ (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Norway 45.92%
Draw 35.2%
Wales 18.88%

Team To Score First

Norway 62.04% ▲ (+0.02)
No Goal 5.69% ▼ (-0.03)
Wales 32.27% ▲ (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 62.6%
Equal 8 10.13%
Under 8 27.28%
Over 9 51.88%
Equal 9 10.71%
Under 9 37.4%
Over 10.5 41.41%
Under 10.5 58.59%

Norway Goals

Over 1.5 58.84% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 41.16% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 33.52% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 66.48% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 16.57% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 83.43% ▼ (-0.03)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5 51.29% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 0.5 48.71% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 1.5 23.09% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 76.91% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 8.35% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 91.65% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.71%
Under 3.5 97.29%

Score analysis

Norway 60.81%
Draw 20.97%
Wales 18.22%
Norway
2-0 @ 10.13% ▼ (-0.03)
1-0 @ 9.92% ▼ (-0.08)
2-1 @ 8.81% ▲ (+0.04)
3-0 @ 6.82% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 5.8% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.18% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 16.15% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 60.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.09% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.69% ▼ (-0.03)
2-2 @ 4.62% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.15%
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 20.97%
Wales
1-2 @ 4.71% ▲ (+0.02)
0-1 @ 4.5%
0-2 @ 2.23% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.76%
1-3 @ 1.65%
0-3 @ 1.08% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 18.22%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 1, 2026 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Cardiff City Stadium
  • Jordan James 37' yellowcard
  • Daniel James 38' goal
  • Neco Williams 48' goal
  • Ethan Ampadu  90'+3' yellowcard
  • Sorba Thomas 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Oscar Bobb 11'
  • redcard Torbjørn Heggem 46'
  • yellowcard Martin Ødegaard  90'+3'