UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Sep 25, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Luxembourg
1 - 0
Lithuania

Rodrigues (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Luxembourg and Lithuania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luxembourg

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Turkey 3-3 Luxembourg
Thursday, September 22 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	0	0	0
2	Faroe Islands	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Lithuania	0	0	0

Lithuania

Last Game: Lithuania 1-1 Faroe Islands
Thursday, September 22 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 48.27%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.44%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.

Result
Luxembourg	Draw	Lithuania
48.27% ( 0.69)	22.09% ( -0.25)	29.64% ( -0.43)

Both teams to score 65.83% (

0.67)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.97% (

34.02% (

-1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.11% (

1.12)

55.89% (

-1.12)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.4% (

0.61)

14.6% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.31% (

1.16)

42.68% (

-1.16)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.08% (

0.24)

22.92% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.31% (

0.35)

56.69% (

-0.35)

Score Analysis

Luxembourg 48.27%

Lithuania 29.64%

Draw 22.09%

Luxembourg	Draw	Lithuania
2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.07) 4-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.47% Total : 48.27%	1-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 6.72% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.09%	1-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.1% Total : 29.64%