Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Faroe Islands had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Faroe Islands win was 0-1 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.