UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Germany
3 - 3
Italy

(Germany win 5-4 on aggregate)

Kimmich (30' pen.), Musiala (36'), Kleindienst (45')
Stiller (22'), Adeyemi (68'), Kleindienst (79')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Kean (49', 69'), Raspadori (90+5' pen.)
Gatti (21'), Buongiorno (29'), Bastoni (79'), Barella (90+9')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Germany

All competitions

Last Game: Italy 1-2 Germany
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Germany	6	14	14
2	Netherlands	6	6	9
3	Hungary	6	-7	6
4	Bosnia-Herzegovina	6	-13	2

Italy

All competitions

Last Game: Italy 1-2 Germany
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	6	13
2	Italy	6	5	13
3	Belgium	6	-3	4
4	Israel	6	-8	4

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 60.59%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Germany	Draw	Italy
60.59% ( -0.02)	21.82% ( 0)	17.59% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 51.2% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.74% (

-0)

46.26% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.45%

68.55% (

-0)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.18% (

-0.01)

14.81% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.9% (

-0.02)

43.09% (

0.01)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.11% (

0.02)

39.89% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.45% (

0.02)

76.55% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Germany 60.58%

Italy 17.59%

Draw 21.81%

Germany	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 11.28% 2-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.9% 3-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.3% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.28% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.01% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.38% 5-0 @ 1.25% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0) Other @ 2.5% Total : 60.58%	1-1 @ 10.36% 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 21.81%	0-1 @ 5.43% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.77% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.5% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0) Other @ 2.04% Total : 17.59%