Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 5, 2026 7.45pm
Stade de France

France vs Belgium - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

France

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Turkey 0 - 1 France

Belgium

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a France win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Belgium has a probability of 31.95% and a draw has a probability of 24.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a France win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Belgium win is 1-2 (7.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.08%).

Result

France 43.93% ▼ (-5.97)
Draw 24.15% ▲ (+1.47)
Belgium 31.95% ▲ (+4.52)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.09% ▼ (-1.74)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.15% ▼ (-2.88)
Under 1.5 20.85% ▲ (+2.89)
Over 2.5 56.31% ▼ (-5.26)
Under 2.5 43.69% ▲ (+5.26)
Over 3.5 34.31% ▼ (-3.84)
Under 3.5 65.69% ▲ (+3.84)
Over 4.5 20.21% ▼ (-3.75)
Under 4.5 79.79% ▲ (+3.75)

First Half Winner

France 33.41% ▼ (-3.60)
Draw 37.85% ▲ (+0.82)
Belgium 28.73% ▲ (+2.77)

Team To Score First

France 53.55% ▼ (-0.61)
No Goal 5.55% ▲ (+0.92)
Belgium 40.9% ▼ (-0.32)

Corners

Over 8 59.78% ▲ (+8.24)
Equal 8 10.44% ▼ (-0.23)
Under 8 29.78% ▼ (-8.00)
Over 9 48.96% ▲ (+7.82)
Equal 9 10.82% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 9 40.22% ▼ (-8.24)
Over 10.5 38.61% ▲ (+6.88)
Under 10.5 61.39% ▼ (-6.88)

France Goals

Over 1.5 45.82% ▼ (-6.54)
Under 1.5 54.18% ▲ (+6.54)
Over 2.5 21.61% ▼ (-6.27)
Under 2.5 78.39% ▲ (+6.27)
Over 3.5 8.22% ▼ (-3.31)
Under 3.5 91.78% ▲ (+3.32)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5 67.04% ▲ (+2.58)
Under 0.5 32.96% ▼ (-2.57)
Over 1.5 35.67% ▲ (+1.97)
Under 1.5 64.33% ▼ (-1.97)
Over 2.5 14.54% ▲ (+1.35)
Under 2.5 85.46% ▼ (-1.36)
Over 3.5 4.79%
Under 3.5 95.21%

Score analysis

France 43.94%
Draw 24.14%
Belgium 31.96%
France
2-1 @ 8.61% ▼ (-0.83)
1-0 @ 8.39% ▲ (+0.68)
2-0 @ 6.96% ▲ (+0.21)
3-1 @ 4.73% ▼ (-0.80)
3-0 @ 4.05% ▼ (-1.15)
3-2 @ 3.15% ▼ (-0.85)
Other @ 8.05% ▼ (-3.21)
Total : 43.94%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.08% ▲ (+0.92)
2-2 @ 5.88% ▼ (-0.13)
0-0 @ 5.55% ▲ (+0.92)
3-3 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.17)
Other @ 0.17% ▼ (-0.10)
Total : 24.14%
Belgium
1-2 @ 7.3% ▲ (+0.32)
0-1 @ 6.95% ▲ (+1.32)
0-2 @ 4.8% ▲ (+1.26)
1-3 @ 3.49% ▲ (+0.81)
2-3 @ 2.76% ▲ (+0.47)
0-3 @ 2.04% ▲ (+0.24)
Other @ 4.62% ▲ (+0.11)
Total : 31.96%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 28, 2026 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Roi Baudouin
  • Diego Moreira 42' yellowcard
  • Kevin De Bruyne 57' yellowcard
  • Youri Tielemans 66' yellowcard
  • goal Michael Olise 88'
Nations League
Oct 14, 2024 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade Roi Baudouin
  • Orel Mangala 29' yellowcard
  • Lois Openda 45'+3' goal
  • Wout Faes 53' yellowcard
  • Charles De Ketelaere 56' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lucas Digne 7'
  • yellowcard William Saliba 22'
  • yellowcard Aurelien Tchouameni 24'
  • goal Randal Kolo 35'
  • yellowcard Ibrahima Konate 45'
  • goal Randal Kolo 62'
  • redcard Aurelien Tchouameni 76'
  • yellowcard Mike Maignan 79'
Nations League
Sep 9, 2024 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Gerard Houllier
  • Kouadio Kone 4' yellowcard
  • Lucas Digne 8' yellowcard
  • Randal Kolo 29' goal
  • Ousmane Dembele 57' goal
  • yellowcard Lois Openda 8'
  • yellowcard Youri Tielemans 38'
European Championship
Jul 1, 2024 5.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Merkur Spiel-Arena
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 14' yellowcard
  • Antoine Griezmann 23' yellowcard
  • Adrien Rabiot 24' yellowcard
  • Jan Vertonghen 85' goal
  • yellowcard Jan Vertonghen 76'
  • yellowcard Domenico Tedesco 76'
  • yellowcard Orel Mangala 90'+3'
Nations League
Oct 7, 2021 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Yannick Carrasco 37' goal
  • Romelu Lukaku 40' goal
  • Jan Vertonghen 67' yellowcard
  • goal Karim Benzema 62'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 69'
  • goal Theo Hernandez 90'
World Cup
Jul 10, 2018 7.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Krestovsky Stadium
  • Samuel Umtiti 51' goal