Nations League Gameweek 6
Nov 15, 2026 7.45pm
Stade Roi Baudouin

Belgium vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Belgium win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Italy has a probability of 29.82% and a draw has a probability of 23.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.23%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Italy win is 1-2 (7.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.86%).

Result

Belgium 46.31% ▼ (-0.08)
Draw 23.81%
Italy 29.82% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.61% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.38% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 20.62% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 2.5 57.4% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 42.6% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 34.64% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 65.36% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 4.5 21.12% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 4.5 78.88% ▲ (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Belgium 37.49%
Draw 39.13%
Italy 23.38%

Team To Score First

Belgium 53.22% ▼ (-0.01)
No Goal 5.46% ▲ (+0.02)
Italy 41.32% ▼ (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 62%
Equal 8 10.82%
Under 8 27.17%
Over 9 50.6%
Equal 9 11.4%
Under 9 38%
Over 10.5 39.58%
Under 10.5 60.42%

Belgium Goals

Over 1.5 48.06% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 51.94% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 24.03% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 2.5 75.97% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 9.89% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 90.11% ▲ (+0.02)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5 65.38% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 34.62% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 33.81% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 66.19% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 12.91% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 87.09% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.24%
Under 3.5 95.76%

Score analysis

Belgium 46.31%
Draw 23.81%
Italy 29.81%
Belgium
2-1 @ 8.95% ▼ (-0.02)
1-0 @ 8.23%
2-0 @ 6.73% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4.49% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.37% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 9.64% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 46.31%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.86%
2-2 @ 5.86%
0-0 @ 5.46% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.38%
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 23.81%
Italy
1-2 @ 7.27% ▼ (-0.02)
0-1 @ 6.86% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 4.4% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.75%
2-3 @ 2.49%
0-3 @ 2.05% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.99%
Total : 29.81%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stadio Olimpico
  • Gianluca Mancini 63' yellowcard
  • Daniel Maldini 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Gianluigi Donnarumma 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Mika Godts 20'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Raskin 25'
  • yellowcard Diego Moreira 29'
  • goal Dodi Lukébakio 69'
  • yellowcard Roméo Lavia 80'
  • yellowcard Matías Fernández-Pardo 89'
  • yellowcard Romelu Lukaku 90'+4'
Nations League
Nov 14, 2024 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Stade Roi Baudouin
  • Timothy Castagne 28' yellowcard
  • Amadou Onana 67' yellowcard
  • Ameen Al Dakhil 77' yellowcard
  • goal Sandro Tonali 11'
  • yellowcard Alessandro Bastoni 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Moise Kean 90'+1'
Nations League
Oct 10, 2024 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 2 1
FT Stadio Olimpico
  • Andrea Cambiaso 1' goal
  • Mateo Retegui 24' goal
  • Lorenzo Pellegrini 40' redcard
  • Gianluigi Donnarumma 90' yellowcard
  • Niccolo Pisilli 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Maxim De Cuyper 42'
  • goal Leandro Trossard 61'
  • yellowcard Leandro Trossard 65'
Nations League
Oct 10, 2021 2.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Allianz Stadium
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo 30' yellowcard
  • Nicolo Barella 46' goal
  • Domenico Berardi 65' goal
  • Emerson Palmieri 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jan Vertonghen 14'
  • yellowcard Axel Witsel 56'
  • yellowcard Toby Alderweireld 63'
  • goal Charles De Ketelaere 86'
European Championship
Jul 2, 2021 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT Allianz Arena
  • Youri Tielemans 21' yellowcard
  • Romelu Lukaku 45'+2' goal
  • yellowcard Marco Verratti 20'
  • goal Nicolo Barella 31'
  • goal Lorenzo Insigne 44'
  • yellowcard Domenico Berardi 90'
European Championship
Jun 13, 2016 8.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stade de Lyon
  • Jan Vertonghen 91' yellowcard
  • goal Emanuele Giaccherini 32'
  • yellowcard Giorgio Chiellini 66'
  • yellowcard Eder 75'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Bonucci 78'
  • yellowcard Thiago Motta 84'
  • goal Graziano Pelle 93'