Nations League Gameweek 5
Nov 12, 2026 7.45pm
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Italy vs France - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium

France

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Turkey 0 - 1 France

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a France win with a probability of 48.98%. A win for Italy has a probability of 30.32% and a draw has a probability of 20.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a France win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (6.15%) and 0-1 (5.93%). The likeliest Italy win is 2-1 (6.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.53%).

Result

Italy 30.32%
Draw 20.71% ▼ (-0.03)
France 48.98%

Both Teams to Score: 

66.11% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 86.2% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 13.8% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 68.11% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 31.89% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 47% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 3.5 53% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 4.5 32.02% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 4.5 67.98% ▼ (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Italy 25.34%
Draw 39.07%
France 35.59%

Team To Score First

Italy 45.91%
No Goal 3.23% ▼ (-0.02)
France 50.86% ▲ (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 58.63%
Equal 8 10.3%
Under 8 31.06%
Over 9 48.04%
Equal 9 10.59%
Under 9 41.37%
Over 10.5 37.96%
Under 10.5 62.04%

Italy Goals

Over 1.5 39.35% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 60.65% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 2.5 18.57% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 81.43% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 7.24% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 92.76% ▼ (-0.01)

France Goals

Over 0.5 79.8% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 20.2% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 55.45% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 44.55% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 31.14% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 68.86% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 14.82% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 85.18% ▼ (-0.03)

Score analysis

Italy 30.33%
Draw 20.71%
France 48.97%
Italy
2-1 @ 6.44% ▼ (-0.01)
1-0 @ 4.65%
3-2 @ 3.46% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 3.45% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 3.41%
3-0 @ 2.16%
Other @ 6.76% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 30.33%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.53% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.21%
0-0 @ 3.23% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 2.26%
Other @ 0.48%
Total : 20.71%
France
1-2 @ 8.49% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 6.15% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 5.93% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 5.32%
2-3 @ 4.72%
0-3 @ 4.02% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 14.34% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 48.97%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 2, 2026 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stade de France
  • Michael Olise 55' goal
  • Dayot Upamecano 73' yellowcard
  • Dayot Upamecano 85' redcard
  • yellowcard Nicolò Fagioli 54'
  • goal Alessandro Bastoni 68'
  • yellowcard Moise Kean 73'
  • yellowcard Antonio Vergara 82'
  • yellowcard Alessandro Bastoni 90'+2'
Nations League
Nov 17, 2024 7.45pm
1
3
HT : 1 2
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Davide Frattesi 31' yellowcard
  • Andrea Cambiaso 35' goal
  • goal Adrien Rabiot 2'
  • goal Guglielmo Vicario 33' (OG)
  • yellowcard Randal Kolo 44'
  • goal Adrien Rabiot 65'
  • yellowcard Matteo Guendouzi 90'+3'
Nations League
Sep 6, 2024 7.45pm
1
3
HT : 1 1
FT Parc des Princes
  • Bradley Barcola 1' goal
  • Kouadio Kone 60' yellowcard
  • goal Federico Dimarco 30'
  • yellowcard Mateo Retegui 49'
  • goal Davide Frattesi 51'
  • goal Giacomo Raspadori 74'
International Friendlies
Jun 1, 2018 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT
  • Samuel Umtiti 8' goal
  • Antoine Griezmann 29' goal
  • Ousmane Dembele 63' goal
  • goal Leonardo Bonucci 36'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Pellegrini 42'
International Friendlies
Sep 1, 2016 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Graziano Pelle 21' goal
  • goal Anthony Martial 17'
  • goal Olivier Giroud 28'
  • goal Layvin Kurzawa 81'
International Friendlies
Nov 14, 2012 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Stephan El Shaarawy 0' goal
  • goal Mathieu Valbuena 0'
  • goal Bafetimbi Gomis 0'