Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 5, 2026 7.45pm
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Italy vs Turkey - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium

Turkey

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Turkey 0 - 1 France

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Italy win with a probability of 47.95%. A win for Turkey has a probability of 31.9% and a draw has a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 (5.81%) and 1-0 (5.37%). The likeliest Turkey win is 1-2 (7.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (7.91%).

Result

Italy 47.95% ▲ (+6.11)
Draw 20.16% ▼ (-1.17)
Turkey 31.9% ▼ (-4.97)

Both Teams to Score: 

67.01% ▲ (+1.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 87.22% ▲ (+0.93)
Under 1.5 12.78% ▼ (-0.92)
Over 2.5 70.39% ▲ (+1.88)
Under 2.5 29.61% ▼ (-1.88)
Over 3.5 47.98% ▲ (+1.00)
Under 3.5 52.02% ▼ (-1.00)
Over 4.5 31.96% ▲ (+0.86)
Under 4.5 68.04% ▼ (-0.86)

First Half Winner

Italy 37.4% ▲ (+6.21)
Draw 34.75% ▼ (-4.62)
Turkey 27.85% ▼ (-1.58)

Team To Score First

Italy 55.74% ▲ (+3.14)
No Goal 2.81% ▼ (-0.32)
Turkey 41.45% ▼ (-2.82)

Corners

Over 8 56.42% ▼ (-3.50)
Equal 8 10.66% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 8 32.92% ▲ (+3.68)
Over 9 45.66% ▼ (-3.07)
Equal 9 10.76% ▼ (-0.44)
Under 9 43.58% ▲ (+3.50)
Over 10.5 35.62% ▼ (-2.43)
Under 10.5 64.38% ▲ (+2.43)

Italy Goals

Over 1.5 55.61% ▲ (+5.94)
Under 1.5 44.39% ▼ (-5.94)
Over 2.5 31.03% ▲ (+4.75)
Under 2.5 68.97% ▼ (-4.74)
Over 3.5 14.27% ▲ (+3.19)
Under 3.5 85.73% ▼ (-3.19)

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5 68.82% ▼ (-4.09)
Under 0.5 31.18% ▲ (+4.08)
Over 1.5 41.33% ▼ (-4.32)
Under 1.5 58.67% ▲ (+4.32)
Over 2.5 19.37% ▼ (-3.31)
Under 2.5 80.63% ▲ (+3.32)
Over 3.5 7.76% ▼ (-2.23)
Under 3.5 92.24% ▲ (+2.22)

Score analysis

Italy 47.94%
Draw 20.15%
Turkey 31.89%
Italy
2-1 @ 9.19% ▲ (+0.92)
3-1 @ 5.81% ▲ (+0.58)
1-0 @ 5.37% ▼ (-0.19)
2-0 @ 5.22% ▲ (+0.51)
3-2 @ 4.59% ▲ (+0.26)
3-0 @ 4.06% ▲ (+0.82)
Other @ 13.7% ▲ (+3.19)
Total : 47.94%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.91% ▼ (-0.79)
2-2 @ 6.56% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 2.81% ▼ (-0.32)
3-3 @ 2.3% ▼ (-0.12)
Other @ 0.57%
Total : 20.15%
Turkey
1-2 @ 7.1% ▼ (-0.64)
0-1 @ 4.58% ▼ (-0.48)
0-2 @ 3.71% ▼ (-0.67)
1-3 @ 3.64% ▼ (-0.48)
2-3 @ 3.61% ▼ (-0.27)
0-3 @ 2.06% ▼ (-0.24)
Other @ 7.19% ▼ (-2.22)
Total : 31.89%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 28, 2026 7.45pm
1
4
HT : 0 3
FT Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Matlı Stadyumu
  • Can Uzun 38' yellowcard
  • Barış Alper Yılmaz 47' goal
  • Barış Alper Yılmaz 54' yellowcard
  • Ozan Kabak 72' yellowcard
  • goal Alessandro Bastoni 9'
  • goal Davide Frattesi 22'
  • goal Michael Kayode 27'
  • goal Pio Esposito 50'
International Friendlies
Jun 4, 2024 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
  • Riccardo Orsolini 30' yellowcard
  • Gianluca Mancini 90'+1' yellowcard
International Friendlies
Mar 29, 2022 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Cengiz Under 4' goal
  • Serdar Dursun 83' goal
  • Mert Muldur 86' yellowcard
  • goal Bryan Cristante 35'
  • goal Giacomo Raspadori 39'
  • yellowcard Nicolo Zaniolo 45'+1'
  • goal Giacomo Raspadori 70'
European Championship
Jun 11, 2021 8.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Olimpico
  • Caglar Soyuncu 88' yellowcard
  • Halil Dervisoglu 90' yellowcard
  • goal Merih Demiral 53' (OG)
  • goal Ciro Immobile 66'
  • goal Lorenzo Insigne 79'