Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 44.55%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-0 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovakia would win this match.