Entering the final matchday of Group A at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, the standings are finely balanced.

Morocco lead with four points from six available, but every team in the group still has a mathematical chance of reaching the knockout stages.

The Atlas Lions cannot finish lower than third in their section, which virtually guarantees their place as the top-ranked team, second-placed side or one of the four best third-placed nations.

Nonetheless, Walid Regragui's team, yet to find their rhythm, will aim to secure maximum points to finish top of their group ahead of Mali and Zambia, while Comoros are no longer able to end in first place but might still advance automatically.

Here, Sports Mole explains each team's scenario heading into Monday's decisive fixtures.

AFCON Group A: Permutations by nation

Morocco (Four points)

Morocco are in the strongest position and have already guaranteed a third-place finish.

To finish first:

Win against Zambia
Draw against Zambia, provided Mali do not defeat Comoros by a large enough margin to overtake them on goal difference. Currently, Morocco have a +2 goal difference advantage over Mali. Head-to-head cannot be used here due to both teams playing out a 1-1 tie.

To finish second:

Draw against Zambia and Mali wins by three goals or more.
Lose to Zambia and Mali fail to win.

To finish third:

Lose to Zambia and Mali beats Comoros. In this case, Zambia and Mali would rise to five points, leapfrogging the Atlas Lions (four).

Mali (Two points)

Mali currently hold second place over Zambia due to goals scored (2 vs 1), as their head-to-head match was a 1-1 draw.

To finish first:

Win against Comoros and hope Morocco lose to Zambia. Mali would then be tied with Zambia on 5 points; overall goal difference would decide the top spot, then goals for (since their head-to-head is a draw).

To finish second:

Win against Comoros.
Draw against Comoros, provided Zambia lose to Morocco.

Can they be eliminated?

Yes, if they lose to Comoros, Mali will likely finish fourth, unless Zambia lose by a massive margin to Morocco.

Zambia (Two points)

Zambia controls their own destiny for a top-two finish.

To finish first:

Win against Morocco. If Mali also win, the top spot is decided by overall goal difference.

To finish second:

Win against Morocco (guarantees top-two finish).
Draw against Morocco, provided Mali draw or lose to Comoros.

To finish third:

A draw against Morocco and a Mali win would leave Zambia in third. A loss could also result in third place if Comoros fail to beat Mali.

Comoros (One point)

Despite being at the bottom of Group A, Comoros can still qualify directly in second place.

To finish second:

Must win against Mali and hope Zambia lose to Morocco. This would leave Comoros on four points, Mali on two and Zambia on two.

To finish third:

Win against Mali. If Zambia also draw or win, Comoros would finish third with four points, which is usually enough to advance as one of the four best third-place teams.

Elimination: