Major League Soccer

Apr 30, 2023 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
1 - 0
NY City

Sapong (46')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Philadelphia 4-2 Toronto
Sunday, April 23 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

New York City FC

All competitions

Last Game: NY City 3-1 Dallas
Sunday, April 23 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Toronto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Toronto.

Result
Toronto	Draw	New York City FC
39.92% ( 0.03)	25.34% ( 0.03)	34.75% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 56.31% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.58% (

-0.15)

47.42% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.37% (

-0.14)

69.63% (

0.14)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.47% (

-0.05)

23.53% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.43% (

-0.07)

57.57% (

0.07)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.64% (

-0.11)

26.36% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.49% (

-0.15)

61.51% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Toronto 39.92%

New York City FC 34.75%

Draw 25.33%

Toronto	Draw	New York City FC
1-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.18% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.05% Total : 39.92%	1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.33%	0-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.98% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.51% 1-3 @ 3.55% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.25% Total : 34.75%