Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 45.91%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 27.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New England Revolution | Draw | New York City FC |
| 45.91% | 26.25% ( | 27.84% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.39% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.28% | 53.73% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.79% | 75.21% ( |
| New England Revolution Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.65% ( | 23.35% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.68% ( | 57.32% ( |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.74% ( | 34.26% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.04% ( | 70.96% |
| Score Analysis |
| New England Revolution | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 11.63% 2-1 @ 9.07% 2-0 @ 8.46% 3-1 @ 4.4% 3-0 @ 4.1% ( 3-2 @ 2.35% 4-1 @ 1.6% 4-0 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.81% Total : 45.9% | 1-1 @ 12.46% 0-0 @ 8% ( 2-2 @ 4.86% Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.24% | 0-1 @ 8.57% 1-2 @ 6.68% 0-2 @ 4.59% ( 1-3 @ 2.38% 2-3 @ 1.73% 0-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.25% Total : 27.84% |