| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Toronto | 22 | -9 | 22 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 23 | -17 | 20 |
| 10 | DC United | 20 | -18 | 18 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 22 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 22 | 17 | 41 |
| 3 | Minnesota United | 22 | 5 | 34 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 46.36%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 0-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Kansas City | Draw | Austin FC |
| 46.36% ( | 25.42% ( | 28.23% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.21% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.83% ( | 50.17% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.87% ( | 72.13% ( |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.36% ( | 21.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.23% ( | 54.77% ( |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.91% ( | 32.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.44% ( | 68.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Kansas City | Draw | Austin FC |
| 1-0 @ 10.63% 2-1 @ 9.25% ( 2-0 @ 8.13% ( 3-1 @ 4.72% ( 3-0 @ 4.15% ( 3-2 @ 2.68% ( 4-1 @ 1.81% ( 4-0 @ 1.59% ( 4-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.38% Total : 46.36% | 1-1 @ 12.08% 0-0 @ 6.95% ( 2-2 @ 5.25% ( 3-3 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 7.89% ( 1-2 @ 6.87% ( 0-2 @ 4.49% ( 1-3 @ 2.6% 2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0-3 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 2.69% Total : 28.23% |