Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.33%) and 2-0 (5.86%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 40.59% | 23.88% | 35.53% |
| Both teams to score 61.71% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.53% | 40.47% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.15% | 62.85% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.81% | 20.19% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.51% | 52.49% |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.31% | 22.68% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.66% | 56.33% |
| Score Analysis |
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 8.7% 1-0 @ 7.33% 2-0 @ 5.86% 3-1 @ 4.64% 3-2 @ 3.44% 3-0 @ 3.13% 4-1 @ 1.86% 4-2 @ 1.38% 4-0 @ 1.25% Other @ 3.01% Total : 40.59% | 1-1 @ 10.87% 2-2 @ 6.45% 0-0 @ 4.58% 3-3 @ 1.7% Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.88% | 1-2 @ 8.06% 0-1 @ 6.79% 0-2 @ 5.04% 1-3 @ 3.99% 2-3 @ 3.19% 0-3 @ 2.49% 1-4 @ 1.48% 2-4 @ 1.18% 0-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.38% Total : 35.53% |