Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 49.69%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.